Social Altruism in Toads? I don't think so

I recently heard about "exploding toads" while talking to my aunt the other day on the phone. I saw the article regarding the toads on CNN.com and was surprised it didn't have pictures. I then did some more research, and found more on the subject than I expected on Wikipedia, which I had never heard of. (Note, one of the "scientists" it quotes hypothesizes that the toads are killing themselves as some sort of social altruism due to overpopulation... um, since when do encyclopedia's cite to idiots?) I was excited when I found this link to a TV station's coverage of the incident. I was greatly disappointed, like John of Sore Eyes, that there is no video coverage of this to be found. I mean, if there is something that I want to see on video it is toads exploding. I mean, how cool is that. (This is the 12 year old in me speaking) And for no reason: A link to Aljazeera's coverage of the exploding toads. Now excuse me while Bush uses the seemingly unconstitutional Patriot Act to rummage through my garbage, put a tap on my phone, and rape my mother.

Poker Stars = Easy Money?

I am now 6 for 7 in the money in two table sit and goes on Poker Stars. Of course my most recent victories are only 4ths. Again, I had to leave and went all in with crap in one of those after hit the money. In the other, my all in with a significant amount of chips was called by ace high and he hit runner runner to beat me out. Other than that, I expect that would have been a second place finish. Anyway, the payback isn't great, but my 60 buy in is now over 220.

And now something I think you'll really enjoy

No not really. Just an update into my life. Yesterday was an off-center day for me. I got a letter in the morning that sent me "on tilt". Basically it was an 8 page tirade against me calling me a racist and so forth. Rather than dwell on that, I went to handle what should have been a realatively simple matter of arguing a motion to dismiss a motion to supress. Not one of my cases, but one I was handling for someone. Anyway, our motion got mailed out late, and the judge set the thing over so the other side can prepare to respond (not that they can, he was trying to claim breach of other's rights in protection for himself, which you cannot do). Afterwards, a witness came and yelled at me. Not what I needed. Then I went to my car. My gas light had been on, and there was a gas station a block away so I planned on filling up after the hearing. Well, I parked on a hill and I couldn't get enough gas to the engine to start 'er up, so I had to go borrow a gas can. I could have done without that.

Anyway, I had plans to go meet Phil Hellmuth at a local bookstore. I had learned of the visit via a local poker related bulletin board. Just to make sure, I checked with the book store and they had no idea who Hellmuth was and he was not scheduled to appear. Had to break those plans and ended up playing softball for a while. I was in mid-season form for hitting, but nearly gave myself blood blisters on both hands. Then went to McGraths Fish House for their app combo basket, which I love, but it tasted a bit different. The chicken was small and overcooked and the wonton sauce was off. I then rushed out to Parkrose for some volleyball. We suck. As individuals, we are ok, but we are not playing as a team and it looks bad. We haven't even won one game yet, let alone a match. Then went home and played a two-table sit and go on Poker Stars and took first despite being surprised to make the final table. In 5 two table sit and goes on that site, I have made the $ in four. 2 firsts and 2 fourths (one of the fourths was when I had a chip stack but the girl I am seeing got bored and insisted that we go. I had to post and fold my way into the money. The other fourth, as soon as I made the money, I went all in with Q3 because I was late for softball.). The play is less crazy at Poker Stars in these sit and goes, but I can't account for my unexpected success.

Anyway, Jeff and Missy, this nearly non-poker related post was for you.

Sit and Go Tourneys: The Value of a Knockout

In Poker, when deciding to whether to call or how much to bet, a player will often calculate pot odds (what are the odds I will win compared to how much I am risking and how much is already in the pot). I don't necessarily count out the odds, but try to make plays that are close based on guess-timates. I have never tried in the past to put a value on effect of knocking someone out of a tournament. However, that is the ultimate goal in tournaments. Pot odds, chip stacks, and so forth mean jack squat if you never eliminate any other players. Thus, I believe there should be a value considered to knocking someone out of a tournament. I have reviewed several poker books, but haven't seen this addressed.

What's the EV of putting someone out?
In my experience, the EV of putting someone out MUST be counterbalanced against your chip stack as compared to the rest of the table (ie putting someone out is not a great concern if losing leaves you with next to no chips). Thus, I believe there is only a postive expected value of calling someone's all in (beyond the pot odds and so forth) if, should you lose, you would retain at least the average chip stack in chips (unless you are on the bubble - bubble play is a bit different).

So what value should one put on knocking out the all in player? If we go back to basic math, it could be argued that knocking one player out with 8 players left means that your odds of making the money go from 3 in 8 to 3 in 7. You would go from a 35% chance of winning to a 42% chance of winning, or a 7% increase in the likilihood of making the money. Under this analysis, calling a 60/40 would be almost the equivilant of calling a coin toss in a money game. Some have suggested you should only call a coin toss if you are getting 1.5:1. Whatever you feel is a good call in a coin toss, this is how I would propose those who are EV driven in their play address the appropriateness of calling an all in bet in a tournament situation.

Oh Sheot

I was just reading Iggy's latest uber-post and noticed he linked me. Perhaps I should post something regarding poker.

Noble Poker
I'm not normally an on-line limit player, which makes me different than most poker bloggers. I don't play no-limit cash games either. I play sit and go's and MTT. That's it. Well, almost. Earlier this month I bought into Noble Poker for $150. Playing their super-loose 2/4 tables I have made that $700+ with the aide of their 100% bonus. So for those coming here from Iggy, let me just say that Noble is a fish pond. I say pond because it can be tough to find a game there, but when you find it, there is money to be made. Oh, and if you can find a player named "whocare" sit down and play no matter what. Regular MF ATM there. I found out about the site at stripper by night and have since learned that Nickle and Dimes plays there.

Poker Stars
I made my first deposit there in preperation for the last blogger tourney (pissed that I didn't get to play in that... Softball coach wanted a practice... he emailed and said unless its pouring we'd practice, but I gave him my number to call me if practice,which started at 4pm, was off... showed up, he didn't.... Bastard), and have since tripled my account there thanks to winning an $18 two table sit and go. That was my first multi-table sit N go. I almost went out fifth, but got some cards and made some agressive plays that paid off.

Paradise
My home for on-line poker. I have been going through some major swings lately. Last month I won 2300 and cashed that out, and still had about 1000 left in the account from an initial buy in of $66. I then swung it down to 700, up to 1400 down to 600 up to 800 down to 400 back to 800 and am now back to 400. I am such a streaky sit and go player. When I am on, I can feel it and can control a table, when I am not, I should just stop, but the gambler in me won't let me.

Gah, look at the time. I have got to get to work.

I don't have an accent

Your Linguistic Profile:

70% General American English

10% Dixie

10% Upper Midwestern

5% Midwestern

5% Yankee

What Kind of American English Do You Speak?

Too much power vested in the City

One city is fining its citizen's if they don't walk their dog three times a day. This is just too much. It's no secret I am against animal rights generally, but this is over the top. Seriously people, where does it end? If they pass this law in your city, its time to throw dog doo-doo on the city counsel's house, even if you don't own a dog.